Showerthought: You can actually lose a game of Catan before placing your first settlement

I was reading the rulebook again for the 5th edition and noticed that if you place your settlements and roads poorly on a bad starting roll, you can mathematically be locked into a loss before the game even really starts. There's a whole analysis on BoardGameGeek about how certain resource hex combinations on the 2020 base set map lead to a 12% higher loss rate for the player who goes last in placement. Has anyone else done the math on starting positions and felt doomed from turn one?

3 comments

3 Comments

stella_murray1mo ago

Have you actually run the numbers yourself on the 2020 map or are you just going off that BGG analysis? I ask because I pulled out the rulebook and the hex placements last week and found that the player going fourth has a better shot if they take the 6-5-9 on the west edge, even though the resources are a little thin. The BGG post might be missing how often the robber gets moved around in the first two rounds, which can flip a bad start into something workable if you play it smart.

nina_jenkins1mo ago

My last game, someone put the robber on the 4-6-10 and it still won.

victorb179d ago

Woah, hold up, stella_murray. You really think the 6-5-9 on the west edge is that good for the fourth player? I mean, sure, it's not a total dud, but doesn't the lack of wheat or ore in that spot just screw you over when you need to build a city or buy a development card? Like, you're banking on trading or a lucky robber bounce, right?