Found out the FAA's new ADS-B Out rule cost the industry way less than they said it would

I was digging through some old FAA reports last night, bored out of my mind, and stumbled on the final cost analysis for the 2020 ADS-B Out mandate. The industry groups were screaming it would cost over $3 billion for the whole fleet to get compliant. The real number? The FAA's own report says it came in under $1.8 billion. That's a huge difference. They basically cried wolf for years about the financial hit, and a lot of us bought it, thinking it would sink smaller operators. But looking at the data, it seems like a lot of the cost got absorbed through normal upgrade cycles and smarter installs. It makes me wonder what else we get fed that's just fear mongering from the top. Has anyone else seen a big gap between the predicted doom and what actually happened on a reg change?

3 comments

3 Comments

baker.eva18d ago

Was I the only one who believed their numbers?

the_anthony18d ago

Yeah, the $3 billion was the early worst-case guess from the industry groups. The FAA's own initial study was closer to $2.1 billion, so the final number being under that isn't a total shock if you followed the whole process. Still a big save, but not quite starting from the same number.

finleyw999d ago

Man it's like this with every big project. They always lead with the scariest possible number to make the final cost look like a win. Remember when they said the new city bridge would be 500 million? Ended up at 350 and they acted like heroes. Same with my internet upgrade, they quoted some insane fee then "found savings." It's just how they get us to accept the price.